EIA lifts Brent forecast for a fourth straight month, but sees $77 by late 2027
The EIA's November Short-Term Energy Outlook, released November 10, raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $97.44 a barrel (from $96.32) and its 2027 forecast to $85.78 (from $83.74), the fourth consecutive monthly upward revision. But the agency still sees Brent falling to $77 by the fourth quarter of 2027.
The News
The US Energy Information Administration released its November Short-Term Energy Outlook on November 10, and it raised its Brent crude forecast for the fourth consecutive month. The agency now expects Brent to average $97.44 a barrel in 2026, up from $96.32, and $85.78 in 2027, up from $83.74. Brent averaged $124 in October, up $10 from September and its highest inflation-adjusted level since July 2022 — the high starting point is what keeps pushing the forecasts up.
But the longer-term picture in the same report points down. The EIA expects Brent to average around $100 in November and December, then fall below $90 in the second quarter of 2027 and to $77 in the fourth quarter of 2027. The reason is supply: Middle East production outside Iran is expected to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter of 2027, and global inventories — stored oil supplies — are forecast to build by 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027. When supply grows faster than demand, prices fall.
US crude output is forecast at a record 14.3 million barrels a day in 2027, adding to the supply picture. The EIA cautioned that flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain vulnerable to disruption — a nod to the tanker attacks reported the same day. One important caveat: the outlook's inputs were finalised on November 5, so it does not reflect the November 9–10 price slide. Brent closed Tuesday at $91.49, already well below the roughly $100 the agency expects for November and December.
The EIA keeps raising its oil forecast — and still sees Brent at $77 by late 2027. Tight now, loose later.
Why It Matters
The forecast revision is a lagging indicator, and that is the first thing to understand. The EIA raised its numbers because Brent averaged $124 in October — the highest inflation-adjusted level since July 2022. A forecast built on October's prices will always look high after the fact. The fourth straight monthly upward revision says more about how expensive oil has been than about where it is going.
The second half of the report is the more useful part. The EIA sees Brent falling below $90 in the second quarter of 2027 and to $77 by the fourth quarter, driven by Middle East production outside Iran returning to pre-conflict levels and inventories building by 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027. Add record US output of 14.3 million barrels a day, and the supply picture for 2027 looks loose — meaning there will be more oil available than buyers need, which pushes prices down.
The caveat is real, though. The outlook's inputs were finalised on November 5, before Brent fell sharply on November 9 and 10. Brent closed Tuesday at $91.49 — already below the roughly $100 the EIA expects for November and December. If the slide continues, the EIA's near-term call will look stale within weeks, even if its 2027 direction proves right. Exxon closed Tuesday at $164.47, down 0.16%, and Chevron at $211.22, up 0.21%.
Analyst's Take
Our call is Mixed. The near term and the longer term point in opposite directions: the EIA raised its forecasts because oil has been expensive, with Brent averaging $124 in October, but the same report sees Brent at $77 by the end of 2027 as supply returns and inventories build. Both halves of the story are in the same document, and neither cancels the other out.
What to watch: whether Brent actually holds near $100 in November and December, as the EIA expects, or whether the November 9–10 slide — Brent closed Tuesday at $91.49 — was the start of the decline the agency sees coming in 2027. The outlook was finalised on November 5, so the market has already moved past its starting point.
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By The Numbers
FAQ
What is the EIA?
The EIA is the US Energy Information Administration, the statistics arm of the US Department of Energy. Its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook is one of the most closely watched oil forecasts in the world, because it comes from a government agency rather than a bank or a trader.
Why did the EIA raise its forecast again?
Brent averaged $124 in October, up $10 from September and its highest inflation-adjusted level since July 2022. When the starting point for prices is that high, the forecast for the year has to rise too. This is the fourth straight month the EIA has revised its Brent forecast upward.
Why does the EIA see prices falling to $77 by late 2027?
The agency expects Middle East production outside Iran to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of the second quarter of 2027, and global oil inventories — stored supplies — to build by 3.5 million barrels a day in the first half of 2027. More supply than demand means lower prices.
What is a barrel of oil, and what does 14.3 million barrels a day mean?
A barrel is 42 US gallons, the standard unit for oil. US crude output of 14.3 million barrels a day would be a record — the most the United States has ever produced in a day.
Why does the outlook not reflect the November 9–10 price slide?
The outlook's inputs were finalised on November 5, before Brent fell sharply on November 9 and 10. So the forecast was built on prices that no longer exist — Brent closed Tuesday at $91.49, well below the $100 the EIA expects for November and December. That gap is worth remembering when reading the numbers.
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Source: EIA