PC DRAM still rising 13–18% in Q4, but PC demand is sagging and inventories are building
TrendForce's November 11 update projects PC DRAM contract prices will rise 13–18% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026 — still double-digit, but slower than the 18–23% jump in the third quarter — even as notebook shipments fell and OEM inventories built. Note: this is a November 11 release carried because yesterday's research did not cover it, and no newer pricing print supersedes it.
The News
TrendForce's November 11 research update projects PC DRAM contract prices will rise 13–18% quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter of 2026 — still double-digit, but slower than the 18–23% jump tracked for the third quarter. This is a November 11 release, carried because yesterday's research did not cover it and no newer pricing print supersedes it; it is not presented as November 12–13 news. The reason prices keep rising even as demand weakens is supply: memory makers are steering advanced-node capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory, and Korean makers' PC DRAM output could fall by more than 40% year over year in 2027, up from an earlier TrendForce expectation of a cut of more than 20% (TrendForce, Oct 30).
The demand side is softening at the same time. Notebook shipments fell 15.8% quarter over quarter in the third quarter, OEM DRAM inventory rose from six to nine weeks at the end of the third quarter to seven to ten weeks in early fourth quarter, and some PC makers are revising their fourth-quarter and first-quarter procurement plans. Client SSD contract prices are expected to rise less than 5% in the fourth quarter — a notable moderation next to the DRAM figures.
The same week, makers began verbally telling distributors they plan further price rises on enterprise products (TrendForce News, Nov 12, relaying Lanjing News), and a Bank of America webcast on November 10 with TrendForce's Avril Wu put fourth-quarter DRAM and HBM prices up 10–20% quarter over quarter and NAND up 8–13% (per Seeking Alpha's account of the webcast). Counterpoint Research's third-quarter tracker backs the pricing story: global DRAM revenue jumped 369% year over year to just under $200 billion on bit shipments up only about 4%, with the blended DRAM price at $1.90 per gigabit and HBM4 heading toward $4 per gigabit.
Memory prices are still climbing — but now it is the supply cuts doing the work, not demand.
Why It Matters
Contract prices are the prices memory makers and their big customers agree in advance for large quarterly orders, and they are the best read on where the market is actually heading. A 13–18% rise in the fourth quarter is still a strong number — but it is slower than the 18–23% jump in the third quarter, and the reason for the rise matters more than the size of it. Prices are climbing because supply is being cut, not because demand is growing.
The supply cut is deliberate. Memory makers are steering their most advanced factory capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory — the memory AI data centres need — and away from PC memory. Korean makers' PC DRAM output could fall by more than 40% year over year in 2027, up from an earlier TrendForce expectation of a cut of more than 20% (TrendForce, Oct 30). That is a rational choice when AI memory earns more per chip, but it means PC prices are being held up by scarcity, and scarcity engineered by the seller is a weaker foundation than demand from the buyer.
The demand side is where the warning lights are. Notebook shipments fell 15.8% quarter over quarter in the third quarter, and OEM DRAM inventory — the stock PC makers hold — rose from six to nine weeks to seven to ten weeks. Rising inventory means buyers have more memory than they need right now, and some PC makers are already revising their fourth-quarter and first-quarter buying plans. If that inventory keeps building, buyers can simply stop ordering, and the pricing power fades no matter how tight supply looks today.
The enterprise side is the offset, and it is why this is Mixed rather than Bearish. Makers have begun verbally telling customers they plan further price rises on enterprise products, the Bank of America webcast put fourth-quarter DRAM and HBM up 10–20% and NAND up 8–13%, and Counterpoint's third-quarter tally — global DRAM revenue up 369% year over year to just under $200 billion on bit shipments up only about 4% — shows the pricing power is real, not a rounding error. The question for the first quarter of 2027 is which force wins: the supply discipline holding prices up, or the inventory build pulling them down.
Analyst's Take
Our call is Mixed. The pricing story is still intact — 13–18% in the fourth quarter, with enterprise rises still to come and DRAM revenue up 369% year over year — but the shape of it has changed. Prices are rising because supply is being cut, not because buyers want more memory, and notebook shipments down 15.8% with inventories building to seven to ten weeks is the demand side telling a different story. That is a cycle driven by discipline, and discipline can break.
What to watch: whether DRAM price rises gain momentum in the first quarter of 2027, as TrendForce's November 6 report still expects, and whether OEM inventories stabilise or keep climbing. If the enterprise price rises stick and inventories level off, the memory names — Micron, SanDisk, SK hynix, Samsung and Western Digital — keep their pricing power. If inventories keep building while PC demand sags, the fourth quarter's 13–18% will look like the peak, not a step on the way up.
Are you bullish or bearish on this story?
By The Numbers
FAQ
What are contract prices?
Contract prices are the prices memory makers and their big customers — PC makers and data-centre operators — agree in advance for large orders, usually set each quarter. They are different from spot prices, which change daily on the open market. When TrendForce says contract prices will rise 13–18%, it means the next round of quarterly deals is being struck higher.
Why do prices rise when demand is falling?
Because supply is being cut faster than demand is falling. Memory makers are steering their most advanced factory capacity toward server DRAM and high-bandwidth memory for AI, and Korean makers plan to cut PC DRAM output by more than 40% year over year in 2027. Less supply of PC memory means higher prices, even with fewer notebooks being sold.
What does 7–10 weeks of inventory mean?
It means PC makers hold enough DRAM stock to cover seven to ten weeks of production — up from six to nine weeks at the end of the third quarter. Rising inventory is a warning sign: if it keeps building, buyers can stop ordering and prices will eventually soften, no matter how tight supply looks today.
What is the difference between DRAM and NAND?
DRAM is the fast, short-term memory a computer uses while it is running; NAND flash is the longer-term storage that holds files when the power is off. The picture differs by segment: TrendForce's Avril Wu told a Bank of America webcast on November 10 that DRAM and HBM prices would rise 10–20% in the fourth quarter and NAND 8–13% — her webcast figures, below TrendForce's September 30 house forecast of NAND up 15–20% — while client SSD prices rise less than 5%.
What should investors watch next?
Whether DRAM price rises gain momentum in the first quarter of 2027, as TrendForce's November 6 report still expects, and whether OEM inventories keep building. If inventories stabilise and enterprise price rises stick, the memory cycle has further to run; if inventories keep climbing while notebook demand sags, the pricing power fades.
👁
Source: TrendForce