Micron's Taoyuan talks fail for a third time as the $3–4.5B Fab 11E pause stands
Micron and its Taoyuan union ended a third negotiating session on November 6 with no agreement on profit sharing. A bonus calculator is due online November 9, but the union says it still has no figures to judge — and the reported pause on the HBM expansion meant to supply Nvidia from 2028 remains in place.
📊 Scorecard: our Bearish call on $MU is scored from $690.00, the last close before it ran. Its first result comes after the next close.
The News
Micron's labour dispute in Taiwan is getting longer, not closer to a deal. Micron and the union at its Taoyuan plant ended a third negotiating session on November 6 without agreement on profit sharing — how much of the company's profit goes to workers as bonuses. Management is developing an employee bonus calculator and a quarterly-bonus inquiry system, due to go online on November 9, but the union says it still lacks the figures and the legal explanation it needs to judge the proposal. A fourth session is tentatively set for November 17.
The two sides are far apart on the core demand. The union wants 15% of Micron's operating profit — profit before interest and taxes — distributed to employees around the world, and it points to Samsung and SK hynix, where profit-sharing practice is more generous. Micron points to a separate agreement it reached in October with the larger union at its Taichung plant, and has not accepted the 15% figure. The Taoyuan union is the smaller of the two, but the dispute has now run through three sessions without a deal.
Hanging over the talks is the reported $3–4.5 billion pause on construction of Fab 11E, Micron's planned HBM and advanced-DRAM expansion in Taiwan, which was meant to supply Nvidia and other customers from 2028. HBM — high-bandwidth memory — is the fast memory stacked next to AI processors, and it is the product Micron's biggest customers are waiting for. The pause remains in place and was not addressed in the talks, according to the reports. Micron says its existing Taiwan operations are running normally. Taiwan accounts for about 60% of Micron's total DRAM output, according to Seoul Economic Daily.
Three sessions, no deal — and a $3–4.5 billion expansion pause nobody at the table is addressing.
Why It Matters
This matters because Taiwan is where most of Micron's memory is actually made. About 60% of the company's total DRAM output comes from Taiwan, so a labour dispute there is not a side issue — it sits on top of the factory base that supplies the AI boom. And Fab 11E is the future part of that base: the expansion meant to add HBM capacity for Nvidia and others from 2028. A $3–4.5 billion construction pause that stays unaddressed while talks stall is a delay to the capacity the market is counting on, even if today's production is unaffected.
The November 9 bonus calculator is the near-term test. If the tool gives workers real figures they can check, the November 17 session has something to work with; if it arrives without the numbers and legal explanation the union wants, the fourth session risks ending like the third. Micron's October 22 deal with the Taichung union shows the company can settle — but the Taoyuan union has now watched three sessions fail, and its 15% demand has not moved. Every week without a deal is a week the Fab 11E question stays unanswered.
Analyst's Take
Our call is Bearish. Three failed sessions, a demand that has not moved, and a multi-billion-dollar expansion pause that nobody at the table is addressing add up to a story going the wrong way. Micron's shares closed Friday at $690.00, up 5.12% on the day in the sector-wide snap-back, but that rally was about the market, not about Micron's Taiwan problem — and the problem is still there on Monday morning. The company's HBM is largely sold out through 2027, which is good news for pricing, but sold-out capacity you cannot expand is a ceiling, not a growth story.
What to watch: whether the bonus calculator due online November 9 carries the figures and legal explanation the union has asked for; the fourth session tentatively set for November 17; and any company statement on Fab 11E, which has now been paused and unaddressed through three rounds of talks. A real offer on profit sharing — or a restart date for Fab 11E — would change this call fast. Until then, the dispute is a slow drag on the memory supplier with the most to prove.
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By The Numbers
FAQ
What is the Taoyuan union asking for?
It wants 15% of Micron's operating profit — profit before interest and taxes — distributed to employees around the world. It cites Samsung and SK hynix, where it says profit-sharing practice is more generous.
What is Fab 11E?
Micron's planned HBM and advanced-DRAM expansion in Taiwan. HBM, or high-bandwidth memory, is the fast memory stacked next to AI processors. The expansion was meant to supply Nvidia and other customers from 2028; reports say construction worth $3–4.5 billion is paused.
Is Micron's Taiwan production stopped?
No. Micron says its existing Taiwan operations are running normally. The dispute is about profit sharing, and the pause affects the future expansion, not current output.
Why does this matter for Nvidia?
Because Nvidia is the biggest buyer of HBM, and Micron is one of only three makers of it, alongside SK hynix and Samsung. If Micron's expansion slips, the supply of the memory Nvidia's AI chips need gets tighter.
What happens next?
The bonus calculator and quarterly-bonus inquiry system are due online November 9, and a fourth negotiating session is tentatively set for November 17.
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Source: Magica / Seoul Economic Daily